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My understanding of the IRA loophole rule is that the year you take delivery won’t matter as long as you signed the binding agreement prior to POTUS signing it into law on August 16, 2022.
Still a lot of unknowns: for example, say you have the binding agreement and do purchase, and take possession of, an Ariya in 2023, what tax year is the credit applicable to? In 2023 the IRS form for the “old” credit will likely be gone, or at least modified to reference the more involved “new” credit(s). Do you file an amended 2022 form to back-claim the credit? I have a feeling that the IRS did not intend this to be open ended beyond 2022 but the wording on the provision is not clear on that.
 

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I went to an online Quicken "Ask The Tax Expert" forum and asked the same question as Nissan will likely reach the 200k end-22 or Q1-23. Here is the response:
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA 2022) signed into law on 8/16/2022. Hence terms used here are “Pre-IRA 2022” and “Post-IRA 2022.”

For deliveries/title transfers occur during 2022, the "Pre-IRA 2022" rules apply. The only difference is 1/1/2022 - 8/15/2022, the vehicle does not need to assembled in North America; 8/16/2022 - 12/31/2022, the vehicle needs to be assembled in North America.

If your written agreement is dated before 8/16/22 and you paid a nonrefundable deposit/downpayment of 5% or more and delivery occurs after 8/16/2022 to end of 2022, the vehicle does not need to be assembled in North America. (Transition rule)

Please look at page 2 of below link, under the column of "Pre-IRA 2022" under the label of "Plug-in EV credit": the highlights are -
*Max amount could be $7,500 non-refundable credit;
*Phaseout after 200,000 plug-in EVs manufactured and sole

Clean Vehicle Tax Credits in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11996

You mentioned that the manufacturer is close to reaching its limit for existing EV credit.
Here is the general rule for manufacturer/vehicle approaching 200,000 cap: Taxpayers may claim the full amount of the credit up to the end of the first quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer records its sale of the 200,000th qualified vehicle. For the 2nd and 3rd quarters, taxpayers may claim 50% of the credit. For the 4th and 5th quarters, taxpayers may claim 25% of the credit. No credit is allowed after the 5th quarter. (Source - TheTaxBook research tool)

Please see below for Index for Manufacturers published by the IRS
IRC 30D New Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit | Internal Revenue Service
Thanks for posting the link to the CRS document — that is the most concise description of the EV tax credit changes that I’ve seen. Based on the IRS statement that a binding contract includes 5%+ down payment, I’d say no one is getting a credit for an Ariya (unless of course they did put down several thousand $ downpayment).
 
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