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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
From various EV forums, I've culled as many examples of US pre-order reservation numbers as I could find. Several of those forum users said they ordered immediately as the Ariya preorder/reservations website went live back on Nov 17. So far, I have not found a single example of anyone stating they have a reservation number lower than 10,000.

Is it possible that Nissan started the reservations index from a base of 10,000, rather than 1?

For all folks here with a preorder, you can check your reservation number by looking in the email that Nissan sent when you registered and placed your preorder... or, you can also find it on the Ariya website when you log in.

For example, mine is 22,1xx. The earliest posted number I've found online is 10,9xx. Does anyone have a 4-digit reservation number? We should have probably added that as a field in the Reservation Tracking List, but there's only 32 forum members here who have participated in that survey, which is about 10% of the registered forum users.

Who here has the highest reservation number? That should give us an idea of how many pre-orders have been registered so far, but I suspect that total number will be offset by 10,000.
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 · (Edited)
BTW, users @KSF and @hymanbill are the most recent US preorder holders to register in the Reservation Tracking List, with a date of 2/8/22 and 2/11/22. KSF & HymanBill, would you be willing to share your reservation number (with the last two digits x'd out for privacy)? If we were to get enough samples from dates in between 11/17/21 and today, we could plot a curve and maybe project a rough estimate about US pre-sale volume expected by Nissan's current Nov'22 US launch date.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
And regarding a projected US pre-sale volume, we could combine our data with information for the search term "Nissan Ariya" from Google Trends to get a pretty good idea of how the Google Trends "Interest Over Time" search metric aligns with upticks in pre-orders. This would improve the model/projection:

Google Trends for "Nissan Ariya"

This is kind of data-mining that Nissan corporate is already doing privately, but we can do it publicly if we share a bit of data here amongst the Ariya Forum. I'm sure their model is very accurate.
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
Many thanks to all who were willing to share data. With this additional evidence, it does appear to be true that US reservations started at 10,000. User @michael95453 indicates the most recent order date, with a 28,3xx reservation number. I'm going to assume there's nothing unusual in the reservation numbering scheme other than the initial 10,000 base, and say that as of last week there have been around 18,350 pre-orders placed in the US.

Do any of the Canadian pre-order holders have a reservation number? I'm not sure if that 18,350 estimate is US-only, or all North America region pre-orders - so maybe a forum member with a reservation from Canada can help us answer that.

My goal with this thread was to try to make a reasonable guess about how many US pre-orders are likely to be active by this fall, so I can get a reasonable level of confidence that the $7500 US EV tax "credit" will still be available. With Leaf sales up by 150%, it's going to be pretty close for a lot of us, especially any of us who ordered an AWD. Most recent Nissan sales data shows that we are only about 40,000 EV's away from hitting the sales volume limiter on the full $7500 credit.

I'll input everyone's data into a simple model in Excel and see what it looks like. I don't know how to account for direct allocations to the US Nissan dealer network, but I'll do some research (maybe call some dealers) to see if I can factor that projection into the model as well.

Yes I'm an engineer :cool:
 

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Many thanks to all who were willing to share data. With this additional evidence, it does appear to be true that US reservations started at 10,000. User @michael95453 indicates the most recent order date, with a 28,3xx reservation number. I'm going to assume there's nothing unusual in the reservation numbering scheme other than the initial 10,000 base, and say that as of last week there have been around 18,350 pre-orders placed in the US.

Do any of the Canadian pre-order holders have a reservation number? I'm not sure if that 18,350 estimate is US-only, or all North America region pre-orders - so maybe a forum member with a reservation from Canada can help us answer that.

My goal with this thread was to try to make a reasonable guess about how many US pre-orders are likely to be active by this fall, so I can get a reasonable level of confidence that the $7500 US EV tax "credit" will still be available. With Leaf sales up by 150%, it's going to be pretty close for a lot of us, especially any of us who ordered an AWD. Most recent Nissan sales data shows that we are only about 40,000 EV's away from hitting the sales volume limiter on the full $7500 credit.

I'll input everyone's data into a simple model in Excel and see what it looks like. I don't know how to account for direct allocations to the US Nissan dealer network, but I'll do some research (maybe call some dealers) to see if I can factor that projection into the model as well.

Yes I'm an engineer :cool:
You're doing the Lord's work there, brother. Thanks for nerding this out for us.
 

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"Do any of the Canadian pre-order holders have a reservation number? I'm not sure if that 18,350 estimate is US-only, or all North America region pre-orders - so maybe a forum member with a reservation from Canada can help us answer that."

Not for me. This is what Nissan emailed:
Thank you for preordering your 2023 ARIYA. Your order has been received and processed. An order number will be provided once your vehicle is scheduled for production.
 

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Welcome to the forum!
How did you spec your Ariya? Do you know what initial allocations are like at your Nissan dealer?
I reserved a Subaru Solterra on 2/8, right after the system opened. But I like the style of the Ariya so much better than the Solterra that I decided to reserve an Ariya that same day. I reserved the Platinum+ AWD version in white. I haven’t heard anything from the dealer.

The car I REALLY want is 1) the Ariya AWD in the Northern Lights color (not currently an available combination) 2) at or below MSRP (I refuse to pay ADM) and 3) delivered before the $7500 tax incentive runs out for Nissan.

I am pretty sure those three things are not going to happen and that I will end up cancelling the order.

I haven’t gotten pricing on the Solterra yet. Anticipating low $50s. If for some reason that doesn’t work out, I may go with a Volvo XC40 Recharge.
 
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