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Many thanks to all who were willing to share data. With this additional evidence, it does appear to be true that US reservations started at 10,000. User @michael95453 indicates the most recent order date, with a 28,3xx reservation number. I'm going to assume there's nothing unusual in the reservation numbering scheme other than the initial 10,000 base, and say that as of last week there have been around 18,350 pre-orders placed in the US.

Do any of the Canadian pre-order holders have a reservation number? I'm not sure if that 18,350 estimate is US-only, or all North America region pre-orders - so maybe a forum member with a reservation from Canada can help us answer that.

My goal with this thread was to try to make a reasonable guess about how many US pre-orders are likely to be active by this fall, so I can get a reasonable level of confidence that the $7500 US EV tax "credit" will still be available. With Leaf sales up by 150%, it's going to be pretty close for a lot of us, especially any of us who ordered an AWD. Most recent Nissan sales data shows that we are only about 40,000 EV's away from hitting the sales volume limiter on the full $7500 credit.

I'll input everyone's data into a simple model in Excel and see what it looks like. I don't know how to account for direct allocations to the US Nissan dealer network, but I'll do some research (maybe call some dealers) to see if I can factor that projection into the model as well.

Yes I'm an engineer :cool:
As far as Leaf numbers being up ‘150%’, I’ve been shopping for a leaf and there has been essentially no inventory out there for months. So based on that non-scientific perspective, I don’t think leaf will play in to it much.
 

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From various EV forums, I've culled as many examples of US pre-order reservation numbers as I could find. Several of those forum users said they ordered immediately as the Ariya preorder/reservations website went live back on Nov 17. So far, I have not found a single example of anyone stating they have a reservation number lower than 10,000.

Is it possible that Nissan started the reservations index from a base of 10,000, rather than 1?

For all folks here with a preorder, you can check your reservation number by looking in the email that Nissan sent when you registered and placed your preorder... or, you can also find it on the Ariya website when you log in.

For example, mine is 22,1xx. The earliest posted number I've found online is 10,9xx. Does anyone have a 4-digit reservation number? We should have probably added that as a field in the Reservation Tracking List, but there's only 32 forum members here who have participated in that survey, which is about 10% of the registered forum users.

Who here has the highest reservation number? That should give us an idea of how many pre-orders have been registered so far, but I suspect that total number will be offset by 10,000.
I placed my order 11/17/2021. My reservation number is 11,343.
 

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Congratulations guys! How are you looking to spec your Ariyas?
Platinum+ AWD in red. I ended up buying an XC40 Recharge last month, though, so I'll probably end up canceling. But I'll wait at least until we start seeing review units rolling out. It's my backup plan if the XC40 gives me any problems. (But so far it's pretty awesome.)
 

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I’m considering an XC40 Recharge also, so it’s great to hear that you’re liking it. What color did you go with? Any downside that you see vs waiting for the Ariya, other than the range?
I got a red one. It's a really nice metallic red with a bit of orange in it. The Ariya will probably be a little roomier, but for my needs that's not a big deal. What I want is a comfortable but engaging driving experience, and the XC40 excels at that. There's a chance the Ariya could be even better, though. The interior comfort is getting hyped up a lot by Nissan. And the Ariya wheelbase is only slightly longer than the XC40, so I expect it to be very fun to drive, too. Right now the only thing I'm not impressed with are the HK speakers in the XC40. I've only had it a couple of weeks, though, so there's still a chance they'll improve with more burn-in time.
 

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One interesting tidbit of information overlap: Reservation numbers seem to start at 10,000. Hum, the first 10,000 reservationists will receive a $500 charging credit for EVgo fast charging. I sure hope there is nothing to this.
 

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Welcome to the forum @Marge! Is the Ariya going to be your first EV?
Thank you! Yes my first ev, started looking at Jeep 4xe, test drove the xc40 pure electric, loved it, but honestly following the pages for both of those vehicles made me start to wonder, I saw this when I was looking at the new Frontier, so I’m finally going to take the plunge, I have a decent enough truck to drive to get me through the wait. 🤞🏽
 

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When are you expecting to take delivery? Will you be installing a home charging station?
I feel like it’s going to be next year even though they’re saying late this year. I live in a very rural area so finding charging stations isn’t going to be easy so yes I’ll probably end up having one installed. Thanks!
 

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Thank you! Yes my first ev, started looking at Jeep 4xe, test drove the xc40 pure electric, loved it, but honestly following the pages for both of those vehicles made me start to wonder, I saw this when I was looking at the new Frontier, so I’m finally going to take the plunge, I have a decent enough truck to drive to get me through the wait. 🤞🏽
That's understandable, but keep in mind we probably won't know about the potential problems with the Ariya until several months after it is released. I went ahead with the XC40 because it's a known quantity at this point and there are established fixes for the majority of issues people have been encountering.
 

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BTW, users @KSF and @hymanbill are the most recent US preorder holders to register in the Reservation Tracking List, with a date of 2/8/22 and 2/11/22. KSF & HymanBill, would you be willing to share your reservation number (with the last two digits x'd out for privacy)? If we were to get enough samples from dates in between 11/17/21 and today, we could plot a curve and maybe project a rough estimate about US pre-sale volume expected by Nissan's current Nov'22 US launch date.
My reservation number is 265xx on 02/11/2022,Bill Hyman
 

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That's understandable, but keep in mind we probably won't know about the potential problems with the Ariya until several months after it is released. I went ahead with the XC40 because it's a known quantity at this point and there are established fixes for the majority of issues people have been encountering.
Yes that’s why I wasn’t worried about the xc40, I know it’s a good vehicle, however I’m pretty far from the Volvo dealers and the Nissan dealer is close enough that it’ll be manageable if I have trouble with this vehicle and I won’t be tearing my hair out driving into metro Detroit area when/if I need to take it in.
 
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