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Looks like, Nissan has already sold ~170,000 Leaf as of 2022/Q1. Nissan Leaf US car sales figures (carsalesbase.com)
At the current Leaf sales rate of ~4,000 per quarter, at minimum the first ~18,000 Ariya purchasers will qualify for the full federal tax credit. Very likely, all of the Ariya reservations (estimated 30,000) will qualify, as the future Leaf sales numbers are expected to be lower in 2022 (Some rumors that Nissan is cutting back US leaf sales). So far, it's looking good for the Ariya folks.
 
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