[Kalvin]

When these EVs hit production, the Ariya might join them and once again let the Ariya qualify for credits: Nissan to build two all-new, all-electric models at Mississippi assembly plant

 

[Nissan79]

Let's drill down a little more:

The Ford F-150 Lightning has a multi-year waitlist, so realistically that's off the list.

The Leaf has been rumored (and unofficially confirmed by at least one Nissan dealership) to no longer be in production, and the dealership inventories are so low as to realistically pull that off the list too.

Only the lowest trim level of the Model 3 qualifies (due to the new price ceiling). This is the short range RWD version.

Model Y depends on the criteria .gov uses to define an SUV (again related to price ceiling).

So in a nutshell, of the (reportedly) 70+ EV and PHEV's that previously had qualified for the 'old' EV tax incentives, under the 'new' criteria signed into law today, we now have a grand total of 4 that qualify with no additional caveats. That's a huge step backwards.

But the mainstream press doesn't understand any of this, and will continue to report whatever is spoon-fed to them by .gov.

Ironically, this is all good news, because once people actually understand the truth, fewer EV's will be sold - which means fewer people at the public charge networks, and less stress on a grid that cannot easily absorb a substantial uptick in EV adoption. It may even give time for the pendulum to swing back towards nuclear plants as an option in some areas. I'm lucky out here in the PNW, because I know my EV runs on hydro. But in the Midwest and East, we all know that EVs run on coal and natural gas... so continuing to scale coal and NG plants to align with EV adoption seems incredibly backwards, and scaling solar/wind is too expensive/inefficient.

 

[Messy Lizard]

Let's drill down a little more:

The Ford F-150 Lightning has a multi-year waitlist, so realistically that's off the list.

The Leaf has been rumored (and unofficially confirmed by at least one Nissan dealership) to no longer be in production, and the dealership inventories are so low as to realistically pull that off the list too.

Only the lowest trim level of the Model 3 qualifies (due to the new price ceiling). This is the short range RWD version.

Model Y depends on the criteria .gov uses to define an SUV (again related to price ceiling).

So in a nutshell, of the (reportedly) 70+ EV and PHEV's that previously had qualified for the 'old' EV tax incentives, under the 'new' criteria signed into law today, we now have a grand total of 4 that qualify with no additional caveats. That's a huge step backwards.

But the mainstream press doesn't understand any of this, and will continue to report whatever is spoon-fed to them by .gov.

Ironically, this is all good news, because once people actually understand the truth, fewer EV's will be sold - which means fewer people at the public charge networks, and less stress on a grid that cannot easily absorb a substantial uptick in EV adoption. It may even give time for the pendulum to swing back towards nuclear plants as an option in some areas. I'm lucky out here in the PNW, because I know my EV runs on hydro. But in the Midwest and East, we all know that EVs run on coal and natural gas... so continuing to scale coal and NG plants to align with EV adoption seems incredibly backwards, and scaling solar/wind is too expensive/inefficient.

if you live in the area served by PSE 50%+ comes from coal. The rest of the state is on hydro and solar and wind. But not PSE yet. They're working on it, but its a slow go for them. But your basic point is still valid. The PNW is mostly renewable as opposed to say, West Virginia.

I live here in the Seattle area also. So this effects me also.

 

[Nissan79]

Down here in Clark county (just a couple miles downstream of Bonneville Dam), we are 65% hydro and 35% NG - probably doesn't make sense to source too much from a single source, but hydro on the Columbia is damn near unstoppable. It's a marvel that came a huge cost to the tribes, so I don't consider it free by any means; but it's better than coal.

 

[atreis]

So in a nutshell, of the (reportedly) 70+ EV and PHEV's that previously had qualified for the 'old' EV tax incentives, under the 'new' criteria signed into law today, we now have a grand total of 4 that qualify with no additional caveats. That's a huge step backwards.

You left off the Chevy Bolt and Bolt EUV, which didn't qualify anymore under the old program but will again now, as well as the VW ID.4 (which is now or will very soon be made in the US), the Ford Mach-E (assembled in Mexico). In theory, the Ariya could if Nissan starts making it in TN.

 

[Messy Lizard]

Down here in Clark county (just a couple miles downstream of Bonneville Dam), we are 65% hydro and 35% NG - probably doesn't make sense to source too much from a single source, but hydro on the Columbia is damn near unstoppable. It's a marvel that came a huge cost to the tribes, so I don't consider it free by any means; but it's better than coal.

Right about that. I am all for getting rid of the coal strip in Montana. But we need to replace it. I don't think PSE is trying very hard to replace the energy. Hopefully the new IRA will source some more wind and solar. Gonna be a mess if they decide to get rid of the lower Snake river dams. Fish will like it for sure, but how do you replace that energy?

Bit off the subject I know.

I think the IRA will push manufacturing to be in the USA. Not sure how the battery issue will work out, since the raw materials are mostly sourced in China and Australia I believe. We have some but not all.

 

[voxel]

Official list

Credits for New Electric Vehicles Purchased in 2022 or Before | Internal Revenue Service

If you bought or leased a new, qualified plug-in electric vehicle (EV) in 2022 or before, you may be eligible for a clean vehicle tax credit up to $7,500 under IRC 30D.

www.irs.gov

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Electric Vehicles with Final Assembly in North America

afdc.energy.gov

 

[dafish]

When these EVs hit production, the Ariya might join them and once again let the Ariya qualify for credits: Nissan to build two all-new, all-electric models at Mississippi assembly plant

In 2025? Maybe.

 

[dafish]

.......
Ironically, this is all good news, because once people actually understand the truth, fewer EV's will be sold - which means fewer people at the public charge networks, and less stress on a grid that cannot easily absorb a substantial uptick in EV adoption. It may even give time for the pendulum to swing back towards nuclear plants as an option in some areas. I'm lucky out here in the PNW, because I know my EV runs on hydro. But in the Midwest and East, we all know that EVs run on coal and natural gas... so continuing to scale coal and NG plants to align with EV adoption seems incredibly backwards, and scaling solar/wind is too expensive/inefficient.

Respectfully, I don't happen to reach the same conclusions. Perhaps we can have a gentlemens discussion to reach firmer territory? Let's try this:

1) Re: the relatively insignificant amount of day-time charging, would you agree it's an excellent salve for the Duck Curve the west coast power industry is trying to figure out?

2) Given the vehicles being discussing are for personal use, most will be charged at night: Moving onto the statement "stress on a grid that cannot easily absorb a substantial uptick in EV adoption", I'm curious on your math here. I certainly well know my homes energy consumption, and I've looked at that of many friends and neighbors that have uttered the same words. In every case their night power use was relatively insignificant. There was no stress on the grid at all. Heck it makes holding a consistent power output easier for the utilities. In fact, Florida Light and Power just this week announced new EV charging incentives.

BTW, we just purchased two fairly large solar systems. Didn't seem too expensive or inefficient to us. Just my opinion, but getting to never write a check for electricity or gasoline again strikes me as a very nice thing. Both homes make more solar than either needs, including EV demand.

So I've had this conversation more than a few times, and lord knows I'm relatively conversant in solar by now, but I'm always open to new insights. I've shared I actually modeled hourly energy consumption of my homes and those of others. How did you come to your conclusions? Are you perhaps renting an apartment in a complex of some kind and don't use much energy in your home?

Also, some light reading on midwest power generation. Its old, up to 8 years ago, but you'll find even then the midwest was on par with the rest of the nation on renewable and nuclear, but lagging on Hydro-electric. Ergo yes, the midwest uses more coal and nat gas in place of the hydro access gap. On the other hand, many of us are investing in solar, so it remains a work in progress. That said, I think we can agree more nuclear power plants would be a very very good thing.
Energy_Sector_Risk_Profile_MidwestRegion.pdf

Here is more recent data: News Release | Consumers Energy
Not bad, right? Coal free by 2025?

Or here: Illinois creates 12% of the entire nations nuclear power.
U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis

So perhaps not entirely backwards for EV use.

My respects either way,
-d

 

[Bill and Susan]

The tax rebate is intended for the buyer only. I feel that some dealerships want a piece of the credit themselves. So they add on packages without asking the buyer for permission! That is the case with myself. The dealership insists on a relatively useless package.

 

[Nissan79]

2) Given the vehicles being discussing are for personal use, most will be charged at night: Moving onto the statement "stress on a grid that cannot easily absorb a substantial uptick in EV adoption", I'm curious on your math here.

Thanks for the very detailed reply. Lots of good info in there and I'm not as studied on the topic as you. My math is not based on anything other that what I continue to read about blackouts through the West:

California Asks Residents To Avoid Charging Electric Vehicles Due To Blackout Risk Days After Unveiling New Gas Car Ban | The Daily Wire

www.dailywire.com

Not sure how much of what I read is propaganda vs fact, but still there does seem to be a concern that today's power grid can't handle the current load, let alone the future requirements that will be impressed upon it by tens of thousands of new EV owners each year.

Thanks and I agree which what you are saying.

 

[improvius]

Thanks for the very detailed reply. Lots of good info in there and I'm not as studied on the topic as you. My math is not based on anything other that what I continue to read about blackouts through the West:

California Asks Residents To Avoid Charging Electric Vehicles Due To Blackout Risk Days After Unveiling New Gas Car Ban | The Daily Wire

www.dailywire.com

Not sure how much of what I read is propaganda vs fact, but still there does seem to be a concern that today's power grid can't handle the current load, let alone the future requirements that will be impressed upon it by tens of thousands of new EV owners each year.

Thanks and I agree which what you are saying.

The article should point out that they are only asking residents to avoid charging during the peak hours of 4-9pm.

 

[bufkey]

Not sure if already mentioned somewhere, this gov link lists the 2023 Ariya FWD qualification for $7500 tax credit but incorrectly under PHEV: Federal Tax Credits for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Cars